Summary Of Last Week/ Forgive File – 18/ 8/ 2018

 

 

 

 

Racing was at CAULFIELD last week on GOOD-4 track. Rail 3m. There did not seem to be any pattern/ bias, perhaps hard on inside rail was not the absolute A-ground as day wore on but there was little in it. We did have some rain during the day so just be little wary re: relative times.

 

Thanks to all who voted (you can join the conversation, and vote, each Saturday by following @gatorgately on twitter) and yes we will get to the mighty mare WINX (55% of vote) when we cover Sydney… As for Caulfield: You went with KING’S WILL DREAM (20%) and there is certainly no argument from me!

 

His fresh run in G2 PB Lawrence was outstanding, he was off midfield and wide then lost his trail a long way from home yet still charged at the wire at the unsuitable 1400m trip. He was the sectional star running 34.34/ 22.83/ 11.72 home 600/ 400/ 200m (all race-fastest) and easy to argue, if he does have a cart into the race, he runs over them !

 

The winner of the Lawrence was SHOWTIME (10% of vote) and the win was terrific. He raced keen early chasing a strong speed (47.85 1st-800m) yet lifted strongly when challenged and defied them all. Overall time was 1:23.67 and there was just 1.1L over the first six home but I am not overly concerned given so many here have so much upside in the prep. Runner-up was the mighty HARTNELL who had rails trail and had room along inside, he gave his all, by race 7 (as mentioned) he may have been in A-ground? WIDGEE TURF measured up well to WFA weaving through and running home 22.94/ 11.80 but did have match-fitness. GRUNT was first under pressure yet kept coming, he was good, he needs further. JUNGLE EDGE led the winner and was headed but refused to drop off, he’d love some rain! HOLY SNOW kept coming after tracking GRUNT, they both ran 12.03 home. HUMIDOR is no 1400m horse but was doing lovely work through the line (home 11.80) along the inside.

 

Race 8 was Listed Regal Roller Stks and they crawled early. 36.95 1st-600m is slow even for average horses! This walking tempo did not stop the run-ons horses running 1-2-3. All this did was prove further evidence that both OSBORNE BULLS and LAND OF PLENTY were/are G1 class horses running around in a Listed event. Winner OSBORNE BULLS had 59kg and ran 22.28 last 400m which was the fastest all day. LAND OF PLENTY was just 3/100ths slower and they matched motors last 200m running 11.40 each. They had 1.5L on BRAVE SONG who was behind them and ran on well (22.34/ 11.46) but couldn’t get by them despite having 5kg less than the winner, it was a tough ask for him given I don’t recall ever seeing a horse run past Osborne Bulls in a race as yet… Ignore the modest overall time of 1-11.83 as they  had no hope of smashing the clock off this walking tempo. Of the others: BELLA MARTINI made a good return from midfield, the aforementioned quinella sailed straight by her but she picked-up and rushed home her last 100m (11.57 home). OREGON’S DAY had 59kg VS smart males and was not suited sit/ sprint, she ran well. MURAAQEB held his ground along the inside, he was OK.

 

Race 9 was taken out by the smart PLEIN CEIL and he was 2nd-up after some 61-weeks off the scene so fancy there is more to come, even allowing for his outstanding 2nd-up record. They didn’t go hard here especially mid race, 61.63 was the 1st-1000m split, winner had sweet run midfield outside with cover late in the day. Hard to miss the run of YOGI, wowee !! Slow out and ridden along 600m from home clear last and 12L off leaders, he was still ‘’hopeless’’ on the turn then absolutely rocketed to the wire running an 11.77 last 200m, the only other horse to break 12-seconds home was NETHERFIELD (11.95) and he looks ready to win something touch easier. MISS ADMIRATION made a pleasing return too, from just off winner before the turn she kept closing and was beaten .6L on line running 12.06 home. ANOTHER COLDIE flopped but vetted clear so, not sure there? Time for 1600m was 1-37.47

 

Back to new season 3YO’s and Vain Stks / Quezette Stks:

 

Vain Stks (R5 Boys) was won by TONY NICCONI who controlled the race sitting up on a modest 30.42 1st-500m, he took over, kicked, and lasted running 1-4.85 for the 1100m. LONG LEAF gave him 2.5kg and a big start, back and 4-wide yet still attacked the line off that slow speed, his last 600m/ 200m splits were 33.85/ 11.57 clearly the fastest of both 3yo races however, they boys who led this race would have been some 8L behind the girls with 600m to run if races were run together so he was entitled to run fast splits. Best run in race! NATIVE SOLDIER was a huge betting drifter, he was totally friendless and ended up starting $13, he still loomed to win (had every chance) but did peak late, clearly fitter! THE AUGUST wants further and was unsuited off this tempo, his 11.75 last 200m was bettered only by Long Leaf. There was 5L over the entire field so..?

 

Quezette Stks (R6 Girls) was won by SUNLIGHT and it was all honours winner for mine. She sat up 3rd 3-wide off a strong 29.07 1st-500m (as mentioned, they would have been some 8L clear of boys mid race) and she carted full weight penalty of 58.5kg, yet, she held them all off. Great win! HUMMA HUMMA had her back and 3.5kg less, she was good but can’t beat Sunlight home ever based on that. THRILLSTER was super 1st-up, back and wide, then wider, she ran home strongly for third (12.01 home). QAFILA was a bit tardy then weaved through/ ran on very well off that sharp jump out (home 11.95) and she will get further, in for good prep I feel. FIDELIA was under pressure a way out then made good ground, she needs further, she was 11.83 home. GOLDEN HALO had mixed luck at best and love the way she found the wire (11.89) and she has real upside! Next prep for PIPPIE. The girls ran 1-4.3 or roughly 3L faster than the boys but don’t get carried away off that given the huge differential in early tempo between the races.

 

REMEMBER THE NAME (3-wide from gate 3 – ouch), SEDUCTIVE MISS (tail/ widest/ on-pace race), OVERSTEP (back/ held-up), HIGHLAND BEAT (very wide), A GOOD YARN (lame), BOB OF THE HEAD (no luck vital stage), LIZARD ISLAND (mile back from horror gate/ ran 11.98, race-fastest home), HIGH RATIO (dipped at start. may need ‘’the operation’’), WRITE ENUFF (lot to learn/ keen/ little room), KHULAASA (limited room/ should’ve finished closer), BLACK HEART BART (lame), DANON LIBERTY (lame), CALL ME HANDSOME (3-wide/ so genuine !), MASK OF TIEM (too close?).

 

 

In SYDNEY it was RANDWICK and track was GOOD-4 there also. Rail was 7m with the strong wind a factor. The pattern of the day was suiting those on inside lanes, with cover, it was not savage by any stretch but I am certainly adding merit to anything that made ground more than 4-5 horses off that inside rail.

 

Well, she has only ever been ‘’beaten’’ once in our Run Of The Day poll, and you all thought she was clearly the best run (in both states)… Of course she was, I mean, why do we mark her harder simply because she is a champion, a legend ?? Makes no sense to this humble form analyst… anyway, I digress… WINX sat back and came wide against the pattern then took a stride to wind-up before running home 32.33 her last 600m included in that was pair of sub-11 splits home (10.48 WOW and 10.79 !!)… Yeah, Run Of The Day X 10 !!!

 

The freak mare ran 1-22.5 for the 1400m in G1 Winx Stks off an even 49.14 1st-800m, they did scoot along first few hundred here then things steadied. INVICTUS PRINCE was $151 but ran enormous. Yes he was in the best ground but he beat home some serious horses and 1400m is short of his ideal trip. D’ARENTO made a great return, wide no cover then gets a trail to the turn but damage done. He still kept closing and ran 10.73/ 11.14 home with pattern no help at all. KEMENTARI was alongside the champ Winx as they straightened but he was quickly dropped, he too kept closing (10.68/ 11.07) and was 3.2L off her on the line, he was not disappointing for mine, he ran well, but is a 3-4L inferior horse to WINX at 1400m, simple. CABEZA DE VACA sat up handy and did get a little break 200m out before being swallowed up, good return G1/ WFA for sure. UNFORGOTTEN was just off Winx and Kementari mid race, she had semi-chequered run early then was doing some very nice work over the line (home 11.10) and was .6L off Kementari on post. Just a lovely return! LIBRAN ran 11-flat home and warmed up beautifully late the stayer…

 

Race 7 was the Show County and LE ROMAIN had his 61kg but it didn’t stop him. Yes he had rails trail then secured rails run (good day for it) but the win was soft and the time was electric! 1-8.62 (just .59 off track record) and it was not a superr-fast day, the tempo was strong which helped them run slick time, 34.51 1st-600m and some mid race pressure set it up. Runner-up SIEGE OF QUEBEC was every bit as good as the winner, he was up 3-wide on that strong speed and working (in inferior ground) and kept coming at the winner, they spaced the rest, excellent effort !! That ‘’spaced’’ third horse was BOSS LANE who was left standing by the winner but finished off well enough to get third from TAKEDOWN who ran on well, late, down outside against the pattern. Winner ran 33.62/ 11.38 with both runner-up and Takedown running 11.80 home.

 

Race 8 was won by good mare EGYPTIAN SYMBOL who had trialled brilliantly before that forgive run fresh, there didn’t look much speed on paper so in-form Tim Clark was onto that quickly and let her roll to lead, she had company  and didn’t walk through 1st-700m (42.76) yet gave neat kick and held off ZESTFUL who had perfect rails trail sit on her. Loved the run of NETTOYER who was back and wide no cover Vs bias yet still attacked the line and her 11.29 last 200m was race-fastest, very very good! LUVALUVA had good run and battled well fresh with er 54kg. I AM COLDPLAY ran on well out wider and recorded 11.33 split home, she ran well. Overall time was 1-17.45 for 1300m.

 

Worth noting on the day the new season 3yo’s in R5 ran 1-16.91 for the 1300m or some 3L quicker and they did this despite a slightly slower 1st-700m split (42.9). Winner MASTER ASH had right run but did wobble around the turn then balanced-up and finished too well running 10.78/ 10.99 home so there was real merit in his win on the clock. DANAWI led at the solid clip and battled well to beat everything else. SMART ELISSIM just didn’t get the room he needed, he should have finished much closer! IRUKANDJI went super fresh (10.75/ 11.13) and will get further. MOMENTUM FACTOR hit line 11.04 closer to those inside lanes, he ran well also.

 

The 3YOF race was over 1200m (R4) and it was a strong gallop from start to finish. Out 34.81 and home 34.34 running 1-9.15 overall, they were some 3L slower than proper older horse Le Romain on the day but were 1-2L slower 1st-600m so merit in this race on the clock also, big time! Winner: FIESTA had rails trail (good day for it) then edged clear to collar leaders, she kept going too well for OUTBACK BARBIE who missed the kick then copped baulk 150m out, she should have finished closer yet still recorded 11.23 final 200m. FUTOOH was restrained tail, weaved through and hit line 11.29 in a nice return off that great trial. READY TO PROPHET led/ held 4th. OOHOOD gave a big start away and came widest, wrong day, she ran 11.03/ 11.31 home… All these girls ran super.

 

BIODYNAMIC (widest in straight), FUI SAN (wide), FOLLOW SUIT (got lost/ ran well), JUST SHINE (never fully clear!), SHARPE HUSSLER (way back Vs pattern), OUTBACK BARBIE (hmmm), OOHOOD (too far back Vs pattern), ADAMINA (wide), SMART ELISSIM (no luck key stage), MILITARY ZONE (upside/ down and too keen), SPIN (back and held-up), ENCRYPTION (no luck late), D’ARGENTO (wide. great), TAKEDOWN (ran on Vs pattern), NO DOUBT (clear last/ home 11.9). NETTOYER (wide/ great), INSENSATA (limited room), SHARPNESS (too keen), BEST GUESS (held-up/ should’ve placed), GAMBLESTOWN (good Vs pattern), BEST OF DAYS (full of running but nowhere to go!! He may well have won it !!), MILSEAIN (pulled stupidly).

 

 

Bring on Saturday !!!

 

 

– Gator