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Stakes Day 2014

Stakes Day 2014

 
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PLEASE NOTE:
All ratings for FLEMINGTON are for GOOD track. There was no mad pattern here Thursday although hard on that inside rail was mostly avoided. Straight races were won up the middle.
In Sydney we are back at RANDWICK and rail comes out 11m. It is rare to have rail out this far. Doubt those on-speed will have any great disadvantage but… Must watch and monitor early races.
 
 
 
BET OF THE DAY (Melb)
FLEMINGTON – Race 9 No.7 – ECLAIR BIG BANG – Scratched at gates here Saturday. Probably should have beaten In Cahoots last time, that guy gave Deep Field a scare in that race. No issue 1400m. Go well.
 
BET OF THE DAY (Syd)
RANDWICK – Race 5 No.3 – AMOVATIO – Jumped to mile latest, went back and was on heels turning then flew home in otherwise on-pace race. Fancy sits closer here in a race devoid of speed. Keen he is ready to win again
 
BEST VALUE BET OF THE DAY
FLEMINGTON – Race 7 No.5 – HOOKED – Wide on mad speed in Epsom yet somehow held 3rd (sub 47-secs 1st-800m!) then chased another hot speed (sub 47-secs 1st-800m again) MV at WFA and surged clear long way out, but kept going. He was .2 off the course record. Back to Hcp. well drawn and value at $8 mark.
BEST EACH-WAY BET OF THE DAY
FLEMINGTON – Race 5 No.1 – PRINCE OF PENZANCE – Excellent win MV Cup running by Precedence and Au Revoir who just ran 6th and 8th in a Melb Cup! His 11.6 last 200m was fastest all day (at end of 2500m) deleting Lumosty’s race. Hard track and 58kg are queries but the formline is too strong to go against him
 
 
BEST ROUGHIE OF THE DAY
RANDWICK – Race 6 No.3 – PARIS MATCH – Terrific return weaving through and just missing. Attacked line for close 3rd to handy Lorna May 2nd-up last prep. Like her Mahara formline! The value at $10-ish as I type.
 
 
 
Lay Of The Day:
FLEMINGTON – Race 5 No.2 – BIG MEMORY – Has a case but come-up equal fave and suspect there are better chances is all.
 
 
 
TOP-RATED RUNNERS:
 
 
 
 
 
 
FLEMINGTON
 
 
 
Race 1 – G3 Maribyrnong Plate – 2YO – 1000m
 
  1. 4 – BANTAM – 1st-start. Nice trial win (untouched) late October. Stable won 2YO race Tuesday with one who did not go as well as this guy to my eye.
  2. 8 – OLD TRIESTE – 1st-start. Was slow out in trial, came wide and ran over his rivals, he was ridden, but went well.
  3. 1 – PROMPT RETURN – did not jump well on debut then recovered, sat handy and beat Hello Hornsby who ran OK 5th here Tuesday to Darely’s Antelucan in OK time.
  4. 2 – ICEFLOW – Jumped-out well before good debut 2nd to Mihalic who was just OK here Tuesday to Antelucan.
  5. 10 – BELHAMAGE – 1st-start. Stablemate of Bantam. Showed ability at jump outs. dam has been a good producer. McDonald rides this.
  6. 11 – LITTLE INDIAN – 1st-start. Showed good speed/ability in her jump out too.
 
Race 2 – RB90 – 2000m
 
  1. 14 – CADILLAC MOUNTAIN – Surprised they dodged Oaks Day in VERY winnable race… Top pick here to 2000m but less confident that Thurs.
  2. 8 – RAWNAQ – Was only 2nd-up and jumping quickly to 2000m when ran over Bring Back and Co. at Caulfield. M.Walker has the key to this guy, wide gate probably suits and just means better odds. His terrific 3rd on VRC Derby here shows how good he can be.
  3. 16 – BRING BACK – Good but just no match for Rawnaq Caulfield (this guy was 3rd-up) and meets him 1kg worse but has run well to G1 winner Sontaag.
  4. 5 – STRATIGRAPHY – Very good in Horsham Cup (deep race this year) out to 1800m when covered ground. Dont see 2000m pulling him up off that. Value?
  5. 10 – RAINBOW STORM – Was fave in that Horsham Cup and good/game on-pace. Back to 2000m a plus.
  6. 13 – HELD HOSTAGE – Was luckless in that Rawnaq race and has not had hard run as a consequence. Very honest. Chance also.
  7. 11 – BELLS OF TROY – Top win 2nd-up (new stable) and she is up to these… Come up huge odds!!
 
Race 3 – RB96 – 1600m
 
  1. 6 – OUR HAND OF FAITH – Bloused by Bel Thor in Seymour Cup (winner ran well here Tuesday) and finished on heels of Under The Louvre and Lucky Hussler prior, they quinellaed G3 race after that.
  2. 16 – SPY DECODER – Wants mile now… Do they back-up? Does he get a run in Emirates??
  3. 1 – EXCESS KNOWLEDGE – Out to silly odds last time off that good return when wide no cover, and chased hard/won. Jump up to 59kg is the worry but certainly has better form than 96 grade.
  4. 8 – PIN YOUR HOPES – Found trouble in Sale Cup, Sysmo did also, he was beaten a lip here Tuesday. Winner is G1 Qld derby winner. Building top mile record.
  5. 4 – DISCIPLE – Tempo was against (and pattern) fresh and although last, his late splits were sound. Sat closer and solid 3rd to Monton last time, that horse would be in betting here. Like his mile record too.
 
Race 4 – Listed Hilton Stks – 3YO – 1400m
 
  1. 3 – HUSSON EAGLE – Hit line quite nicely in G1 Coolmore on Saturday, he beat home many good 3yo’s there. Time was good (race rated as well as Deep Field’s – older horses) and looks suited 1400m.
  2. 9 – STAVIVA – Closed nicely last time behind Stratum Star who you could argue strongly, was the run of the race in Carbine club here Saturday.
  3. 1 – PRESSING – Slow out fresh, used-up midrace, yet still attacked the line. Great run! Wants 1400m on big track. Needs luck gate 2 and has 58kg but can win!
  4. 2 – ARMADA – Draws out (pattern?) but beat home Husson Eagle in that hot Coolmore Saturday.
  5. 4 – LORD ASPEN – Loosk smart. To 1400m last time and far too good, ran faster time than two other 1400m races on the day, clearly, for older horses. How good?
  6. 15 – GRECO – Wants 1400m badly, as does 14 – LAYZAXYL – Deep race!!
 
Race 5  – G3 Q.E. Stks – 2600m
 
  1. 1 – PRINCE OF PENZANCE – Excellent win MV Cup running by Precedence and Au Revoir who just ran 6th and 8th in a Melb Cup! His 11.6 last 200m was fastest all day (at end of 2500m) deleting Lumosty’s race. Hard track and 58kg are queries but the formline is too strong to go against him.
  2. 8 – NOBLE PROTECTOR – Simply outsprinted by Emirates Stks hopeful Contributor last time but was coming back at him on line. Wants this trip now! Beat Signoff home (good 4th in Melb Cup). Go well.
  3. 3 – LE ROI – Solid on-pace in MV Cup and lookers said that ”tops him off”. Has 1.5kg on toppy here too.
  4. 2 – BIG MEMORY – Clear 2nd-best last week behind Signoff who ran so well in Melb Cup. Ran home quite well in Caulfield Cup prior. Must have a case too.
  5. 5 – BRING SOMETHING – Promising/Still on up. Ran over them in Bendigo Cup (pace suited) and nice big track here suits… Chance but is he shade of ”unders”???
 
Race 6 – G1 Darely Classic – WFA – 1200m
 
  1. 10 – CHAUTAUQUA – Two outstadning wins this prep, soft wins too, in fast times. Sailed by Temple Of Boom in both, he was wide yet still close-up behind key rivals here in G1 Manikato since. First go WFA.
  2. 2 – LANKAN RUPEE – Did a power of work (ran a 21.3 midrace 400m) yet lasted in G1 Manikato. Big strong win here in Newmarket last time up straight.
  3. 8 – FAMOUS SEAMUS – Underarted. Held-up shade too long then flew home 12-flat last 200m in Manikato which was race-fastest. Always over his odds!!
  4. 9 – TERRAVISTA – Measured-up well WFA in Manikato when charged but just missed them (as did most!). Nice middle draw. Must have a case.
  5. 7 – REBEL DANE – Luckless of late and arguably, wins last two with more room???
  6. 5 – SLADE POWER – wary him here too.. Gate 4???
  7. 11 – CLUSTER – Best blowout hope. Great race!
 
Race 7 – G1 Emirates Stks – 1600m
 
  1. 5 – HOOKED – Wide on mad speed in Epsom yet somehow held 3rd (sub 47-secs 1st-800m!) then chased another hot speed (sub 47-secs 1st-800m again) MV at WFA and surged clear long way out, but kept going. He was .2 off the course record. Back to Hcp. well drawn
  2. 9 – LUCKY HUSSLER – Blinkers on last time and wow, did that work, he exploded away from a good field and the race rated very strongly. Mile no issue. Gate? Pattern? Can win!
  3. 11 – BULL POINT – Strong finale (best late splits) of Crystal Mile and 2kg swing on Hooked a plus. Also had very good late splits Caulfield prior given he stayed on (slower) inside lanes.
  4. 6 – CONTRIBUTOR – Nice Oz debut. Beat Noble Protector and Signoff! Back to mile some query but high-class. Goes in!
  5. 2 – THE CLEANER – Also worried about the drop to 1600m but how brave was he in Cox Plate… He was entitled to be beaten 10L on that speed.
 
Race 8 – G2 Momentum Energy Stks – Mares – 2000m
 
  1. 9 – SCRATCHY BOTTOM – Nice finale fresh then held-up, and again found line sweetly last time. Now 3rd-up, to 2000m, on big track, off good speed… That is a recipe to see her running very well, at nice odds.
  2. 14 – LADY CUMQUAT – Just forget MV (throat/ feet issues). Go on her top 2nd prior in a race she could not win at the weights and still beat Suavito, since won, and meets her 4.5kg better now. Value too!!
  3. 1 – SOLICIT – Good in G1 Myer Saturday ridden against her normal pattern. The 2000m is no issue. The 58.5kg is not ideal given this is SWP race but still think she is a key winning hope against these B-graders.
  4. 2 – SAUVITO – Wound-up strongly and beat Precious Gem (since won well) latest and looked there like she wanted 2000m.
  5. 12 – SPIRIT OF HEAVEN – Has been luckless of late. She looks to my eye as if 2000m will be no issue. Chance!
  6. 13 – ANAMPOUR – Underrated here Tuesday, she was brave and Precious Gem form ties in, obviously.
 
Race 9 – Hcp – 1400m
 
  1. 7 – ECLAIR BIG BANG – Scratched at gates here Saturday. Probably should have beaten In Cahoots last time, that guy gave Deep Field a scare in that race. No issue 1400m. Go well.
  2. 4 – FAST N ROCKING – Back to his best this prep since being gelded. Two wins and one very good 4th when came wide against the race-pattern… In Cahoots won that race, Eclair was 3rd so… Ties in well.
  3. 13 – TELEPATHIC – Lovely trial then terrific return against males in Sydney. Unbeaten 2nd-up. Yes 1400m!
  4. 8 – SWEET AS BRO – All may not have been well fresh, his jump out prior was excellent, his form last prep was excellent. Best blowout hope??
  5. 1 – HENWOOD – Held-up and flashed late fresh, he should have won, and is no 1000m horse these days as a rule. This is his trip, 1400m! Has 58kg but goes in…
 
 
 
RANDWICK
 
 
 
 
 
Race 1 – 2YO SWP – 1000m
 
  1. 4 – CARRIAGES – 1st-start. Showed speed/ability in trial in October sitting deep. Clearly could have won it if let go.
  2. 3 – MINE TWO – Didn’t have ton of luck on debut and wasn’t far away in slick time. No match at all for smart Furnaces 2nd go, but beat 3rd (who has ability) clearly.
  3. 5 – ITALY – 1st-start. Won trial late October, very light ride. Looks a natural speed runner.
  4. 1 – DOMANUS – 1st-start. Trialled quite well also. Had him behind 4 and 5 is all.
 
Race 2 – 3YO BM70 – 1400m
 
  1. 8 – SANTAURIO – Tough win on debut then spelled. Shared speed and held on ok behind Wine Tales who looked good thing beaten Flemington Tuesday, they ran time. Weights in favour. The value in tough race?
  2. 1 – GOOD PROJECT – Wide and stuck well fresh then bloused by Wine Tales that same race, he beat Santaurio over a length there but jumps to 59kg and the 3kg swing leans me to the 8.
  3. 7 – HAURAKI – Was $2-to-$2.5 on debut and was far too good Kembla maiden despite being very new to it all. Time was good for the day. There is a stack of upside to him. Come up short but looks smart.
  4. 4 – DEADSET – Ran last but hardly disgraced in Dulcify Stks latest. Beat VRC derby winner Preferment prior, at this trip, on wet. Good scalp!
  5. 2 – CYCLONE – Big win fresh in city maiden and won running away! Good third to Hallowed Crown early last prep reads very well. Little between these.
 
Race 3 – BM80 – 1150m
 
  1. 6 – MOHAVE – Did work wide in Crowley behind Kuro here then was pressured early Rosehill before racing away from Confederate who had run second to smart filly Onemorezeta who went to Flemington and ran over Eloping and Tawteen!
  2. 5 – BONSAI – Started short fresh but was very wide, forgive. Thrashed Amanpour prior has since run supe rin strong mares race Flemington.
  3. 3 – FARE WELL – Stayed on slower inside lanes and tempo was no help last time. Girl Guide emerged from the race to run terrific in G1. Loved the fresh run to Turquoise King for this grade. Overs?
  4. 2 – FORT SUMTER – The Road To Summer form from two-back turned out Saturday form. Had excuses last time behind Atmospherical who then won Flemington.
  5. 4 – VALCOT – Luckless behind Fort Sumter before Canterbury win (nice ride) when backed at big odds…
 
Race 4 – Ranvet Sprint – 1000m
 
  • 3 – ALBERTO MAGIC – Has become super genuine. Led at good clip last time and beat all-bar Atmospherical (went to Flemington Thursday and impressed) in slick time. Comes back to 1000m, is unbeaten at 1000m, in one of those he beat In Cahoots.
  1. 8 – HOLDER SUNSET – Resumes. Good speed trial win. Led and nailed by Atmospherical (looks good form now!) fresh last prep but beat 3rd easy. Her fresh run prior she led and held 3rd to Vain Queen (looks good form now!!).
  2. 5 – QFIGHTER – Resumes. Ran home well from last in a Bribie Qlty Doomben fresh last prep. Won 2 of other 4 fresh. The 1000m is no issue.
  3. 6 – BALL OF MUSCLE – Resumes. looked terrific early last prep and measured up to Saturday grade behind Amovatio in that campaign. Still on the up it seems!
  4. 1 – TAHITIAN BLACK – Resumes. Trialled OK. Not sure 1000m here with 59kg (and they claim away) but speed on paper suits
 
Race 5 – BM88 – 1600m
 
  1. 3 – AMOVATIO – Jumped to mile latest, went back and was on heels turning then flew home in otherwise on-pace race. Fancy sits closer here in a race devoid of speed. Keen he is ready to win again.
  2. 2 – TIMELESS PRINCE – Thought he was good 2nd-up from back/wide in on-pace race and gave him good hope to 1500m last time, he attacked line, but Frespanol was shade too good. Lack of tempo the worry.
  3. 1 – SCORPIO QUEEN – Was not far off some good ones at WFA fresh then home OK to Mahara (won Flemington). Is dual 1600m winner. Mare with 59kg??
  4. 4 – DREAM FOLK – Did work home 2nd-up in on-pace race. 3rd-up to the mile ideal.
  5. 6 – SCOTTISH BORDER – Back in trip latest and worked home…Next best.
 
Race 6 – F&M BM80 – 1400m
 
  1. 3 – PARIS MATCH – Terrific return weaving through and just missing. Attacked line for close 3rd to handy Lorna May 2nd-up last prep. Like her Mahara formline! The value?
  2. 1 – BROOK ROAD – Excellent return splitting Boss Lane and Atmospherical then excellent again in Nivison. That form measured up Flemington too. Yes 1400m. Claims down to 60kg. Might be too good for these??
  3. 10 – SHIGERU SENDAN – Ran 8th in Crowley behind Kuro in fast time but her late splits were good, now fitter, to 1400m with no weight for gun young rider… Has a good case.
  4. 6 – PEACE FORCE – Backed heavy latest when month fresh and gave her all, drops in weights. Yet to miss the trifecta at 1400m.
  5. 5 – PILLOW TALK – Wide no cover in same race as Peace Force, she held on well. The Church Boy form is good.
  6. 2 – ALL CERISE – The othe rmust… Back to 1400m a huge plus as do think 1500m sees her out.
 
Race 7 – BM80 – 1800m
 
  1. 7 – SO NOSTALGIC – Led and raced away from handy field Canterbury 2nd-up, was backed. His last 1800m run he was on the heels of Rock Sturdy.
  2. 5 – BARGE AND CHARGE – Led/Pressured and held on ok given had no peace last time at 2000m. Grand Marshall won (then won Flemington) beating Saigon Tea (then probably should have won Flemington). To 1800m here. Value / danger.
  3. 2 – VITELLO – Stuck wet 2nd-up then led and beat all-bar one his last couple, both of those winners have since run very well (one won – one 2nd at Flem’ton).
  4. 6 – PERPLEXITY – Ran 9th fresh but it was a race of little change and little guide! To 1600m suits. Has a case at odds too.
  5. 3 – LAURIE’S LOVE – Solid win last time. Back to mile some query to Saturday class but some hope…
 
Race 8 – BM75 – 1400m
 
  1. 5 – LOFTY AMBITION – Resumes. Tracked wide and went nicely in trial. Worked early 1st-up last prep and held on well (3rd). Good talent. Needs luck from the draw or pattern in favour. Good enough for any BM75!
  2. 14 – RESPECTED – Top return win then hardly had things pan out well last time. She was terrific closing 3rd when 3rd-up last prep. at 1400m.
  3. 16 – GOD’S IN HIM – Won Seymour maiden fresh and ran time. Suspect he is handy. Obviously had issues. 2nd-emergency so..
  4. 6 – SKARSGARD – Backed heavy fresh and looked gone when headed but showed great fight. The second to Amovatio last prep reads well. On the up. Goes in for sure.

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