16/8/14 – G1 email

16/8/14 – G1 email

 
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PLEASE NOTE:
All ratings for CAULFIELD are for DEAD track. Rail is 3m. Last meeting here was True rail 26/7 and track played OK, perhaps late in the day the inside was ”off” a little. Expecting no mad pattern/bias today but always watch/monitor.
In Sydney we are at ROSEHILL. Ratings are for DEAD track however, the bureau are predicting ”90% chance of 10-20mls of rain”, the catch is, when does it come? As I type this they are saying afternoon/evening so… There is some guesswork. Rail is 3m. Was True two weeks back and track played very well, they were winning from everywhere, great stuff !!
 
 
BET OF THE DAY (Melb)
CAULFIELD – Race 9 No.2 – GREGERS – Resumes. Went super in trial/jump out. Fresh last prep she was less than 2L off Lankan Rupee in a high-rating G1 Oakleigh Plate. Claims to 58kg and gets good run. No wins last prep but she is simply better than mares grade!
 
BET OF THE DAY (Syd)
ROSEHILL – Race 6 No.5 – ENTIRELY PLATINUM – Resumes. Sat deep and was too strong for Messene in excellent trial win. Big win 59kg on wet fresh last prep then measured up to stakes grade very well. Top-pick.
 
BEST VALUE BET OF THE DAY
ROSEHILL – Race 1 No.3 – BLAZING DRAGON – Did enough fresh then love the way she found the line 2nd-up to 1500m latest, now to 1900m back against own sex in a race where there is speed… Keen to back her and at $8 she is ”overs”…
BEST EACH-WAY BET OF THE DAY
CAULFIELD – Race 7 No.5 – JABALI – Resumes. Terrific in recent trial/jump out. Chased Rubick, then Earthquake early last prep. Fancy was ”over the top” by the time they got to Sydney. Maiden but happy to back him here.
BEST ROUGHIE OF THE DAY
ROSEHILL – Race 8 No.8 – HUNTER JACK – Luckless fresh then did hit line when race was over, he didn’t have clearest run last week and was not far off As Needed in course record time. Yes 1500m, wet non-issue and amazed he has come up $31. Great roughie.
 
 
 
 
Lay Of The Day:
CAULFIELD – Race 5 No.1 – MOMENT OF CHANGE – Big ask 62kg. Can see him running well, without winning… Probably same with Lord Durante ($2.35????)… We’ll see….
 
 
 
TOP-RATED RUNNERS:
 
 
 
CAULFIELD
 
 
 
Race 1 – F&M BM90 – 1600m
 
  1. 5 – SPIRIT OF HEAVEN – Terrific return against the bias then two tough wins. Step to mile looks ok, suspect she measures up against these older mares with no weight taking line through her early 3yo form with Marianne Etc.
  2. 2 – ATLANTIS DREAM – Seven runs this prep, worst finish is 2nd! Chased hard last time beating all-bar in-form Jessy Belle giving her weight. Claims down. Won’t run poorly!
  3. 4 – ACAPELA – Good/Sound 3rd last time behind Atlantis Dream/ Jessy Belle, these three got away on rest of the field, has little .5kg swing on Atlantis Dream and is 5th-up whilst she is 8th-up.
  4. 6 – TO BE HONEST – Just could not catch Dare I Ask latest who got away with 53-second 1st-840m, she comes through hot form race prior, has a win over Nautical and that girl would be near fave here.
  5. 1 – LADY MELKSHAM – May need heavy to turn tables on a few here but you could argue, closest to inside rail was not the best ground MV latest.
 
Race 2 – Hcp – 2000m
 
  1. 1 – BAGMAN – Left alone with 60kg at top of the weights but he may be too good for them again here, he has exceptional finishing speed, in fact his 11.64 last 200m MV latest (at the end of 2040m) was clearly the fastest all day. Top-pick.
  2. 5 – DE FINE LAGO – Jumped in trip 2nd-up and ran home OK given slow speed, he was 2.6L off Bagman on the line and is surely fitter (meets him 1kg worse). Note, he has a good 3rd-up pattern to him.
  3. 6 – LORD DURANTE – Led (own way) and won last time, beating Bagman into 3rd, he then (of course) won well. First go 2000m here which is the unknown and he is length better wet but must have a case.
  4. 8 – REGALITI – Gets the gun run here on my map and may be the one at odds. Gets away from heavy ground. Had pressure up front two-back and was not far off Reckless Assassin who then won well again.
  5. 3 – UNCHAIN MY HEART – Nice late splits fresh at 1600m. Fitter and much better suited 2000m but her recent wins are over further. Does not want rain. Chance.
 
Race 3 – Hcp – 1600m
 
  1. 1 – LORD OF BRAZIL – Love the way he went through the line at Flemington in on-pace dominated race (clear fastest closing split, 11.88) and is desperate for 1600m. Best form these days is away from very wet tracks too. Ready?
  2. 5 – GOOD VALUE – Also hit wire in that same on-pace race (home 12.07) and was 2nd-up off a long break, now gets to mile, 3rd-up, with weight advantage on Lord Of Brazil, and note he won well 3rd-up last prep before beating Galah!
  3. 4 – FULGUR – His best recent form is at 1600m and he strikes a winnable race. Good from too far back behind The Cleaner last time. Can win.
  4. 8 – FELIDEA – Ran on against the slow tempo latest and his one go at 1600m, was a win, down in weights and chance.
  5. 9 – DIGITALISM – Liked him last time in restricted grade and just lasted beating Count Encosta who has certainly franked that form. Plummets in weight and in below limit after claim so can measure up.
 
Race 4 – BM90 – 1400m
 
  1. 11 – INFINITE ENERGY – Terrific win/finale Geelong in $50k BM84, they ran time, runner-up Cross Of Gold ran well in one of these restricted races last week. He has good form here and the confidence may be back? Value hope.
  2. 12 – CHARMED HARMONY – Must forgive last run. Brilliant winner prior and like him back at 1400m with jar out of track in any case. Will look the winner turning and with no weight, can certainly win.
  3. 14 – AVERAU – Resumes. trialled just OK but was not knocked about. Should have won here in 0-78 class fresh last prep. Has a touch of quality.
  4. 3 – RUGGED CROSS – Can mix his form but good here last time off that slow speed, he beat Bagman who then won very well. Drops sharply to 1400m.
  5. 9 – ARE THERE ANY – Resumes. Won 2 of 3 fresh and the miss was up the Straight. Was not knocked about herself in recent trials. Up to these.
 
Race 5 – Listed Regal Roller Stks – 1200m
 

 

  1. 4 – CLUB COMMAND – Resumes. Good fresh horse. Sat wide no cover yet went down narrow 3rd to Velrosso/ Phelan Ready in MM Cup on Gold Coast fresh last prep. Taking line through Speediness and previous prep, he can win.
  2. 2 – PILLAR OF CREATION – Kept fresh suits. Quite well weighted this scale given his rating is much higher than a few on the 54kg mark. Recent 1200m form around Le Bonsir and Co. reads well and gets good smother gate 1.
  3. 3 – THIAMANDI – Took sit last time and sailed straight by them in terrific win, that was her first go at 1200m, and it was at WFA! Prior to that she beat two subsequent City winners in her two wins.
  4. 1 – MOMENT OF CHANGE – Resumes. Is the class and proven G1 performer. Loves it here at 1400m and trialled well. The 62kg is the obvious query.
 
Race 6 – G3 Quezette Stks – 3yoF – 1100m
 
  1. 1 – LONDON LOLLY – Resumes. Two wins before the spell were terrific and the form was well franked in Sydney through Bring Me The Maid (in Slipper) and Go Indy Go (big G1 win!). Liked her recent trial/jump out. Stable have them ready fresh.
  2. 10 – KALABEK – Resumes. Bakced into odds-on at her debut and impressed then had a most forgetful day at Doomben. Spelled. Has come on? Talented.
  3. 3 – ROYAL SNITZEL – She is the match-fit, in-form girl and track spies tell me she was the star worker here midweek. Proven with jar out. Should be right on speed. Looks certain to run well.
  4. 2 – SUNSET ROCK – Resumes. Trialled well in S.A. but stablemate Get The Nod ran by her, she beat 3rd (another handy one) clearly. She easily beat Go Indy Go before spell so that ties in strongly with top-rater here…
  5. 8 – TOP DOLLY – Resumes. Huge tip on debut and ran well to Oakleigh Girl. Had issues last prep. Went very well in recent jump out. Wary.
  6. 7 – NOVEL DANCER – Resumes. Two starts, two impressive wins and spelled… Another who may well measure up. Not easy.
 
Race 7 – G3 Vain Stks – 3yo C&G – 1100m
 
  1. 5 – JABALI – Resumes. Terrific in recent trial/jump out. Chased Rubick, then Earthquake early last prep. Fancy was ”over the top” by the time they got to Sydney. Maiden but happy to back him here.
  2. 10 – JUST FOR STARTERS – Was $9-to-$5.5 MV latest but had tough run (back/wide/ went forward long way out) and stuck to the task very well. Has real upside still.
  3. 6 – NORDIC EMPIRE – Trialled very well then won well (had good run but was strong) fresh beating many rivals here and had 58kg so meets a few better at the weights today. Gate 1. Go well.
  4. 2 – BOOMWAA – Forced wide on turn fresh MV and kept closing, winner Nordic Empire saved the ground, meets him 3.5kg worse now but form in first prep around top-shelf is hard to ignore. Has a case too.
  5. 4 – CORNROW – Resumes. Was backed when good 2nd to Mahve in Diamond lead-up then was right behind Jabali the G1 Blue Diamond. Missed a trial and may be ”half a run short” but has the quality.
 
Race 8 – G2 Lawrence Stks – WFA – 1400m
 
  1. 2 – PUISSANCE DE LUNE – Resumes. Won this last year from the tail (leaders ran 48.6 1st-800m that day), doubt they go any harder here and he is off an injury this time but if this stable can win with Count Encosta and Aliyana 1st-up, fancy they can do it with a G1 class horse!
  2. 5 – LIDARI – Resumes. Was back/wide in G1 Futurity fresh last prep and ran well given that. Previous two fresh runs were excellent. Can reel off a terrific split himself and will have head start on the fave here.
  3. 6 – ZAMORAR – Good chase/win fresh then challenged G1 horse Tiger Tees last week but was just no match late. His one go 1400m was in this race in 2012 when second to Second Effort, who placed behind PDL in it last year. So there you go.
  4. 8 – STAR ROLLING – Resumes. Talented galloper beaten 3L in Barton Stks this track/trip fresh last prep. Luckless fresh prior at 1200m. Measured up well WFA behind Fiorente in last campaign.
  5. 10 – GIG – Fit, super honest and may sit up closer here. 1400m is her trip, has some WFA form. Maybe…?
  6. 1 – FORETELLER – Resumes. Hit line late in nice trial Sydney. His fresh wins were in his younger day but he too can produce a ripping sectional late.
 
Race 9 – Mares Hcp – 1100m
 
  1. 2 – GREGERS – Resumes. Went super in trial/jump out. Fresh last prep she was less than 2L off Lankan Rupee in a high-rating G1 Oakleigh Plate. Claims to 58kg and gets good run. No wins last prep but she is simply better than mares grade!
  2. 3 – YOU’RE SO GOOD – Resumes. Chased Angel’s Beach fresh last prep (winner backed heavy) giving her 3.5kg. Then chased G1 horse Riziz. Jumped-out quite well herself.
  3. 7 – BLOOMINGDALE MISS – Real black-booker fresh against the track bias then well-backed, overcame trouble, and won well here last time. Back to 1100m up a notch in class are queries but is in this.
  4. 8 – MEMBERS JOY – Resumes. Found trouble and was terrific fresh last prep at 1000m. The 1100m suits better. Trialled quite well herself. Chance.
  5. 11 – MEZERAY MISS – Kept fresh since sound return, that form has been super. Did win stakes race before spell.
  6. 5 – DANESTROEM – Resumes. Yet to miss top-3 fresh. Sat deep and too good for them in BM70 grade latest fresh run. In 52kg and likes jar out of track.
 
 
ROSEHILL
 
 
 
 
 
Race 1 – F&M BM80 – 1900m
 
  1. 3 – BLAZING DRAGON – Did enough fresh then love the way she found the line 2nd-up to 1500m latest, now to 1900m back against own sex in a race where there is speed… Keen to back her.
  2. 5 – SCARLETINI – Found line super behind Forever Crazy two-back when 2nd-up off 65-weeks, now meets her 2.5kg better, doubt was suited staying at 1600m last time, she warmed up late, yes 1900m! Ready? Danger.
  3. 1 – FOREVER CRAZY – Top win Randwick then good risk back at 1400m last time (was on-pace race too). She has won twice at 1800m and run well 2000m so no issue this trip. Big weight but winning hope.
  4. 4 – ZAZPARELLA – Brings different formline, she split Reckless Assassin (off a big win) and Anfitriona (off a big win) Flemington last week when back at her right trip. Prospect of rain will not bother her. Very genuine girl.
  5. 10 – SENTA HELGA – Sound return then just no match for darci’s Affair 2nd-up but down in weights 3rd-up, to 1900m are pluses… Can measure up.
 
Race 2 – F&M BM75 – 1400m
 
  1. 4 – BRING A RING – Went well fresh behind speedy male in fast time with 57kg then wasn’t far away Flemington when closest to slower inside lanes. Was 1L 4th to Moderate at this trip 3rd-up last prep. Is a winner here, at 1400m.
  2. 8 – ALL SALSA – Soft maiden win fresh then straight to NMW race in town and won just as easily, aggregate margin, 5.5L. Looks like she will eat 1400m. How good??
  3. 6 – UNIMPEACHABLE – Found line sweetly fresh WFM. Fitter/Further are big ticks. She ran very well in Mona Lisa Wyong 2nd-up last prep from back and wide. Stuck on one win.
  4. 12 – SENSUALISM – Nice finish to beat Maluti 2nd-up then wide and stuck on super last time! Back to 1400m looks ok. Handled wet Ok early doors. Chance.
  5. 1 – MISSVONN – Resumes. No trial. Nice finale fresh last prep behind Superstition then impressed 2nd-up before measuring up against G1 fillies. Wary.
  6. 5 – REPLY CHURLISH – Likely leader and the other with claims.
 
Race 3 – Hcp – 1800m
 
  1. 10 – REIGNING – Total forgive run 3rd-up (off two very good runs) then did well to score Kenso (was backed) beating Black Jag (flying) and Laidback Larry (then won beating key rivals here). Wet ground a plus.
  2. 8 – MULTILATERAL – Went back to get cover and forced to make run with no trail last time, thought he was very good, winner Laidback Larry led them and that form ties in. Unproven wet.
  3. 1 – BONFIRE – Resumes. Slow out in trial, went forward wide and stuck to task very well, liked the trial. First Oz start here. Stakes winner in homeland at 2100m. Want on-side.
  4. 11 – EVANGELIST – Backed $15-to-$11 fresh and just held off subsequent winner Moral Victory, it was hist first Oz start. On home record 1800m suits much better.
  5. 7 – BLACK JAG – Brave seconds last two and split Reigning/ Laidback Larry latest so… cannot leave out!
 
Race 4 – BM90 – 1200m
 
  1. 8 – DREAM CHOICE – Good on-pace in trial. Failed fresh last prep then blossomed, had a win over Shelford and ran second to Kencella in fast time. Tough race this.
  2. 5 – SKIP TOWN – Back to 1200m last time (all his wins are at 1200m) and backed heavy but caught 3-wide no cover (from gate 5!), he never shirked it (ran well) and draws in. Good hope.
  3. 3 – TRAITOR – Resumes. No trial. I am a big fan but 59kg for new season 4yo is no picnic. He was good, but beaten, in maiden fresh last prep before going on to Group win at 1500m. Never seen wet.
  4. 12 – WOULDN’T IT BE NICE – Flying! Strong finish last time reeling off some impressive (fasetst) splits and quinella Rock Sturdy/ Lorna May are smart. Back to 1200m only query I have…
  5. 11 – WEINHOLT – Another talented 4yo but he too comes back to 1200m which may not be ideal. Is in Ok weights on his Long John formlines.
  6. 2 – TERRITORY – Key hope if here, not Melb.
 
Race 5 – San Domenico Stks – 3YO – 1100m
 
  1. 6 – WASHINGTON HEIGHTS – Resumes. Blundered start in trial then rocketed to the line under no riding, excellent trial. Loved his debut in Kindergarden Stks from the back (was backed too) on wet. Will get further but looks serious talent.
  2. 9 – YGRITTE – Resumes. No trials. Ran time in maiden debut win then was within 1L of Mossfun. Very good at Flemington after that when left sitting duck! No trials found.
  3. 3 – NOSTRADAMUS – Resumes. Speed/Won trial just from Bring me The Maid. Debut win was smart before Rubick 4th in Diamond lead-up.
  4. 2 – BUGATTY – Flopped on wet fresh. Since trialled very well (was ridden) in fast time. Risking if rain comes but a hope on better than heavy…
  5. 1 – LAW – Resumes. Beaten for speed in Bugatty trial but closed, went well, he won easily fresh last prep then wasn’t bad behind Mossfun.
 
Race 6 – Hcp – 1400m
 
  1. 5 – ENTIRELY PLATINUM – Resumes. Sat deep and was too strong for Messene in excellent trial win. Big win 59kg on wet fresh last prep then measured up to stakes grade very well. Top-pick.
  2. 4 – COUP AY TEE – Found strife key stage last time and may well have tested the winner, when he finds form he holds it, wetter ground no issue.
  3. 16 – GREATWOOD – Resumes. Pace/Gallant/Good trial. First Oz start here. Has good fresh form at home. One run wet at home was only stakes placing. Huge watch.
  4. 1 – HONORIUS – Resumes. Went nicely in trial too. Good 2nd to Tromso fresh in May (here) and won this race brilliantly fresh-up last year when $8-to-$4.8…. Goes in everything!
  5. 13 – TOUGHER THAN EVER – Looking for wet ground and fancy can improve at odds if rain comes here off solid trial, and a forgive run…
 
Race 7 – BM75 – 1100m
 
  1. 3 – LYRIC – Luckless key stage fresh then went back to (slower) inside lanes and really went through the line. He was backed off the map and won 2nd-up last prep then won in town. Doubt wants it too wet, suspect they scratch anyway if rain arrives.
  2. 12 – WORLDLY IMPACT – Was strong late in that same race and he too found strife (baulked) key stage and should’ve finished closer. Draws out so pattern late in day a key, never seen wet.
  3. 13 – RUNWAY STAR – That was the real Runway Star winning here fresh setting a strong speed and kicking off it! Doubt back 100m is any query. May well go on now…
  4. 6 – SUPERSTITION – Resumes. Led clearly in trial and kept going too well, there was a gap to 3rd. Forgive the fresh miss last prep, he then won well 2nd-up. In this!
  5. 8 – MASTERSTROKE – Good return in same race as top two-raters in run-ons race, handles wet. Has gate 1 (pattern) and may want touch further now so shuffled down to 5th.
 
Race 8 – BM80 – 1500m
 
  1. 8 – HUNTER JACK – Luckless fresh then did hit line when race was over, he didn’t have clearest run last week and was not far off As Needed in course record time. Yes 1500m, wet non-issue and amazed he has come up $31. Great roughie.
  2. 1 – PROJECTILE – Resumes. Brilliant 10L trial win. Failed here fresh last prep but took a sit and improved midrace, wrong recipe. He then won (leading!) 2nd-up at odds.
  3. 13 – DOWDSTOWN CHARLIE – Just OK last time, others were better but he found the line, big tick today is the forecast rain, he grows a leg on wet ground. Chance dry but serious chance wet! Check track.
  4. 4 – CORRYVRECKAN – Super honest. The mile just found him out last time. Backs-up and drops to 1500m (big plus!) and proven wet… races handy… Has a good case.
  5. 16 – LUCKY LUCKY LUCKY – Very nice return run. Was not far off Entirely Platinum 2nd-up last prep. In 54kg and has a case too.
  6. 11 – BLACK REVOLVER – Can win dry. Laying if wet.. Simple.
  7. 6 – MORAL VICTORY – Backed/Won Ok last time but more pressure here? Still a hope.
 
 
 
Good luck !
Gator
🙂

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