SUMMARY OF LAST WEEK/ FORGIVE FILE – 10th Feb 2019

 

 

 

 

Racing was at CAULFIELD on Saturday on GOOD-4 track. Rail was TRUE. Of the nine winners on the day, 4 led all the way, two sat right behind the speed, one sat off speed wide with trail (Lyre) and two came from near the tail. Doubt there was any significant bias however there certainly was a headwind in the straight (didn’t effect the leader in many races) but those coming wide to make their runs, especially earlier on in the day, seemed to struggle;e to sustain the run/ effort?

 

 

Thanks for all who voted (over 1400 votes), you can be involved each Saturday with the poll appearing on twitter under the handle @gatorgately. You went with NATURE STRIP who secured 38% of the vote from HAWKSHOT (28%) and AVILIUS (27%).

 

He was at his brilliant best NATURE STRIP no doubt. HE didn’t step cleanly but mustered great speed to lead in 28.32 1st-500m and just sustained speed all the way to the line stopping the clock in a very slick 1-3.18 (it was not a fast day given Good-4 rating and headwind remember). This overall time was some 16.2L above the ‘’all classes” benchmark.

 

Whilst NATURE STRIP stole the show JUNGLED EDGE lost no admirers with his gallant second, he looked gone 500m out yet battled bravely and actually beat the third-horse, THERMAL CURRENT, easily. VOODOO LAD recorded race-fastest last 200m (12.24) but this G1 winner was simply not fast enough and was run off his legs, rider D.Oliver reported post-race: ‘’They were just too fast’’… Sums it all up !!

 

To the G1 Orr Stks and MANUEL caused the upset leading all the way, he was given an easy time up front running 49.26 1st-800m, this is some 6.4L below G1 class average and Hawkshot, who led the other 1400m race on the day for 3YO’s would have been around 4L in front of Manuel with 600m to travel. He (Manuel) kept kicking and defied them all and ran 1-24.47 which is moderate time by G1 standards (around 7.3L below G1 average). Runner-up KEMENTARI looked to have his chance, he came wide before the turn (faced breeze) but had clear air, he ran 11.40 last 200m. Lining the performance up with fellow dead-heater for second LAND OF PLENTY is interesting, Land Of Plenty was off midfield and wide no real cover (also faced breeze) yet still attacked the line running 34.29 (+10L Vs ave) and 11.21 home (second-fastest of day!), he was enormous! BRAVE SMASH was solid/ close-up but had his chance. BEST OF DAYS made a nice return after losing some momentum 250m out. MATERIAL MAN also had his momentum affected, his last 200m of 11.28 was nice and he went through the line sweetly. REDKRIRK WARRIOR ran on well. HOLBIEN held on well for easier. SO SI BON ran 11.12 home (fastest of day) and there was 2.4L over all of these horses !

 

Back to HAWKSHOT and his dominant G2 win also over 1400m. He led in 48.45 (around 4L quicker than Manuel in G1) and ran 1-23.47 which was nearly 6L faster than those in the G1 Orr Stks. Great to see him put it all together, you could argue he should now be 6 wins from 8 starts with A) more luck and B) more racing nous. He can go on! Overall time was some 12L above all BM and +2.2L Vs 3YO G2 Average so race rated well. DEALMAKER ran on strongly from midfield and ran 34.8 last 600m (+6.8L) and ran by RINGERDINGDING (35.12) who was only 1st-up (Dealmaker 2nd-up) with ARAMAYO tracking the leader and battling quite well to hold 4th spot. DECLARES WAR only warmed up late, in fact, his 11.84 last 200m was bettered only by second and third horses here. He needs further, urgently!

 

To the all important Blue Diamond Preludes:

 

Boys went first and winner I AM IMMORTAL led all the way, he went 28.92 1st-500m and ran 1-4.44 overall, the speed was good (+4.9L Vs class ave first 600m) and race rated quite well overall however, the girls have run faster time, off a significantly slower tempo so I sincerely doubt the Blue Diamond winner is in this crop of males. I do concede they have real upside and winner still has not worked it all out (how to harness that energy). Runner-up SHOTMAKER was only on debut and did cover ground, he still closed off strongly running 35.38 last 600m than 12.24 home. HAWKER HURRICANE was good late coming down centre of the track and ran 35.4/ 12.04. BRAZEN BRADO did his best work late (12.20) but there was just 2.5L over first seven boys here.

 

Girls next, and yep, they have recorded 1-4.39 so 5/100ths quicker than boys despite running 29.83 (-.8L Vs class) 1st-500m. So, in short, the boys would have been say, 5L in front of the girls with 600m to run yet, the girls have run them down! Winner LYRE sat off the modest tempo wide with trail on ATHIRI and knuckled down hard, she has run 34.28 last 600m (so yeah, over 6L faster home than Shotmaker) and 11.36 last 200m, that last 600m split is +9L Vs class ave. VINICUNCA led (well-rated) and kicked, she was only collared late and held ATHIRI (been wide/ good effort) off for second. They had 1.5L on LANKAN STAR who was quite good and probably should have finished touch closer. BROOKLYN HUSTLE was back and keen, on one rein, but did close off well running 34.52/ 11.50 home. He tracked LYRE and yep, ran on well, but winner has still .14 faster than him that last 200m.

 

Big win from AVILIUS in the last, he is a real class act. The leaders here went hard running 59.1 1st-1000m and no shock the class supers dominated the event. Winner has still run +5L last 600m Vs ave despite the hot speed (+5.7L) and race has rated very well (over 12L above all benchmark standards). No shock right! SIKANDARABAD is underrated and a ripper, he was closer to that hot speed than both winner and gun third-horse NIGHT’S WATCH yet still split them on the line. NIGHTS WATCH ran 35.67 / 12.28 home Vs winner’s 35.2 / 11.96. Winner did slice through whilst Nights Watch came wide I noted. HARLEM also ran on well but was no match for the trifecta. TRAP FOR FOOLS looked gone but was coming back again late, his run was actually really good, he needs further and like him when rolling along. Time was 1-37.08 for 1800m here.

 

AL NAIFA (lame), ZOUBO (lame), SPANISH REEF (wide no cover/ battled well/ top return), JUST HIFALUTIN (limited room/ 11.74 race-fastest last 200m), VOODOO LAD (run off his legs!), TAVISAN (amiss?), GROOT 9wide on-speed), LANGUISHING (amiss?), SOCIAL SPIN (internal bleed), MATERIAL MAN (needed more room/ nice to line), D’ARGENTO (never enough room), LAND OF PLENTY (wide/ huge), BRING ME ROSES (run off her legs/ prefer at Flemington).

 

 

 

In SYDNEY it was WARWICK FARM and track went from HEAVY-8 to SOFT-6 so I certainly will not be using relative times on the day to find future winners. The horses/ jocks were off the inside rail immediately and the better ground was clearly away from that inside section.

 

 

Going with GEM SONG who resumed in Race 4, sat off a slow speed (-6.7L Vs class) and made his run closest to inside in inferior ground, yet was still too good!

 

GEM SONG’s last 600m of 35.08 was some 6L above class ave and he ran 11.88 final 200m. PURPLE SECTOR made a good return from tail, coming widest (best ground) and did like his last 100m or so here. CHARGE beat SANDBAR for third despite overarching badly early so, not sure what to make of SANDBAR, he trialled well coming in, maybe he needs more speed on OR a drier track. They ran 1-12.42 for 1200m which was .3 slower than Champagne Cuddles (later, on drying track) so what that’s worth.

 

CHAMPAGNE CUDDLES won the G2 Breeders after being given the gun run clear third off that slow speed. Leader went 37.09 1st-600m which was some 8L below class (G2) standard and said leader, COOL PASSION, was fitting the winner all the way to the wire, they had 1.5L on ALASSIO (who sat second) which meant race was first three out, first three home. EGYPTIAN SYMBOL had little hope from back there off this tempo but did run +10L last 600m Vs class ave. NETTOYER ran race-fastest 11.60 home whilst not in best ground (sneaky/ good return !). Time was 1-12.11

 

Two class fillies fought out 3YO Inglis Sprint (R5) and FIESTA was a shade too strong despite covering a stack of ground (yes, fence was off) but she was 4-5wide no cover all way and still managed to run the fastest last 200m split of the day (11.54) and nailed ESTIJAAB who was certainly in for the battle, she had led in 29.74 (.4L above class ave) and these two beat the rest easily! MIZZY held third after sitting 3-wide 3rd no cover and COTERIE battled on well behind them. ROYAL CELEBRATION made ground but was no threat, his trial prior was only fair to my eye.

 

Had to love the win of CASTELVECCHIO in $2Million Inglis Millennium race. He was last, ridden along and detached from the field, he swung widest then unleashed a booming finale (in best ground) to sail by ACCESSION and DAWN PASSAGE (both coming off high-rating wins) and was going away from then on the line. His last 600m was +4L Vs class ave and he ran 11.84 home (2yo). He ran faster time (1.11.97) than Gem Song and Champagne Cuddles (careful !! They went harder early here too !!). ACCESSION was good, he came wide and made a sustained run from mid race. DAWN PASSAGE was also good, held-up key stage, eased wider and nice to wire. They had 1.2L on AVON RIVER who was back between the quinella mid race so had his chance. PRETTY BRAZEN ran home Ok and that ties that Melb Diamond form in (but track wet remember).

 

TIME TO REIGN (wide/ too keen), AKASAKI (not much room vital stage), SHE KNOWS (went to inside?), MEMES (chased hot speed/ winners wider), SUPER TOO (amiss), MASTER ASH (doubt loved wet), NETTOYER (tempo against/ worst ground/ good), WHITE MOSS (blew start/ tempo against), SLOW BURN (poor recovery), ESPAANIYAH (poor recovery), BISCARA (worst ground), MORTON’S FORK (mile back/ worst ground/ ran well), ALLERGIC (ditto), TANGLED (rider: didn’t handle it), HIGH LOW BET (worst ground), HONEY ESPRIT (chased fast pace – +12.8L), ZIDANE (lost plot when re-plated pre-race), SONDELON (chased that fast pace also).

 

 

 

– Gator