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Ozracingform.com – G1 email – ATC Derby Day 2013

23 Oct Ozracingform.com – G1 email – ATC Derby Day 2013

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PLEASE NOTE:
All ratings for FLEMINGTON are for DEAD track. Rail is 6m. Rail was True last time here and there was no mad pattern but in straight races they used middle of track. Doubt any on-pace or inside pattern will emerge here. In Sydney we are back at RANDWICK and ratings are for DEAD track. Rail is True. Track looked/played very well here a few weeks back and has been hardly used of late so expecting very level playing field.

BET OF THE DAY (Melb):
FLEMINGTON – Race 6 No.5 –  ZABISCO – Luckless in Easter Cup and had a bit to give! That was his first go 2000m. Wide no cover and excellent in Golden Mile prior. Flying! Bossy knows him. Loves big tracks like Flemington. Keen! Come up $9.50.. Must be a typo??

BET OF THE DAY (Syd)
RANDWICK – Race 2 No.2 – TOYDINI – Has a rocket finish on him, looked to be just getting home OK last time then absolutely flew that last 150m. Step to 1600m ideal. He looks to have more upside than many here too.

BEST VALUE BET OF THE DAY
RANDWICK – Race 8 No.4 – DYSTOPIA – Brilliant trial before good 4th in Galaxy run in near record time and back to own sex, out to 1200m with winnble weight. Goes close. $10 looks silly odds.

BEST EACH-WAY BET OF THE DAY
RANDWICK – Race 3 No.7 – SAIL – Good finish in Keith Nolan at Kembla when .8L off Unimpeachable (the fave) and has 2kg on her, and 5kg on Royal Descent. Might be the value here at $9 mark. Will relish 2000m.

BEST ROUGHIE OF THE DAY
FLEMINGTON – Race 4 No.5 – PERFECT LENGTH – Lost ground/Shuffled back key stage latest then ran home well (2nd-fastest last 200m) in what was on-pace dominated race and now meets winner King’s Palace 3kg better. Great value at $10 as I type…

Lay Of The Day:
RANDWICK – Race 8 No.5 – ARINOSA – Just at a new level this prep. Big finale/win over Shamal Wind last time… Only tiny, tiny query, is she looking for 1400m now? Some unders??

 

TOP-RATED RUNNERS:

 

FLEMINGTON

 

Race 1 – 3YO Hcp – 1000m

 

  1. 10 – TRICKY GLEN – Top fresh win when well backed then solid in good race at Bendigo. Good finish with far from ideal run latest. Back to 1000m. Looks overs $13.
  2. 5 – GENTEEL – Resumes. Easy fresh win last prep Gosford beating older horses then won this track/trip very well. Only defeat that prep was too smart Isabella Snowflake. Can win!
  3. 4 – FLAMBERGE – Touched off by a good filly in Angelic Light at MV. Well held 5th-horse Generalife beat older horses Wednesday. Back to 1000m a real query but straight-track can off-set same and, has simply the best formline.
  4. 2 – DAY PROCEDURE – 4-wide no cover and forget last run. The win prior and 2nd to subsequent G1 winner Shamexpress reads very well.
  5. 1 – LANKAN RUPEE – OK return and fitter. To 1000m won’t hurt. 58kg no help but chance.

Race 2 – 3YOF Hcp – 1400m

 

  1. 6 – LATER GATOR – She is the weight horse here. Plummets 6.5kg from Caulfield 3rd and meets key rivals up to 6.5kg better. Sits off good speed. Tough race but can spec at $8.
  2. 1 – LADY OF HARRODS – Good return in hot race in Adelaide (Shamal wind and Co.) then close-up Rosehill in, again, a very deep race. Back to own sex. Out to 1400m/3rd-up. She was 3rd-up at 1400m last prep when beat subsequent G1 winner Commanding Jewel. Can win!
  3. 16 – NAUTICAL – Maiden but should have won both starts to date and the horses that beat her have both since run enormous. May measure up at big odds here.
  4. 8 – MALUTI – Closed well Canterbury fresh. 2nd-up last prep she split Thunder Rain and Edgewod who are both smart. Chance.
  5. 5 – COINS – Good return Caulfield when perhaps not in A-ground and fitter/1400m suits.
  6. 10 – SPITFIRE LADY – Has a case too…

Race 3 – 2YO – SWP – 1200m

 

  1. 8 – WASHINGTON SQUARE – worked to line well at 900m fresh in fast time in race won by one who then accepted for Golden Slipper (but missed the run). Sound 3rd in race Iconic was 2nd on debut reads well Vs there. Jumps to 1200m.
  2. 7 – TONYBOY – Wide on speed and good debut 4th Bendigo behind Iconic (see – that ties in nicely). Better for that and gets softer run gate 4.
  3. 2 – CHURCHILL DANCER – Came wide and just missed Weinholt last time in good effort, that was his first go 1200m off forgivable run at Bendigo in that Iconic race.
  4. 4 – HARD STRIDE – Wide/Good debut Vs Iconic then did some early work and went down swinging to Weinholt. In this.
  5. 3 – DÁMPEZZO – 1st-start. No trials. By Reset and Dam was a gifted sprinter. Stable’s 2yo’s flying.

Race 4 – Galilee Final 3YO – 2500m

 

  1. 5 – PERFECT LENGTH – Lost ground/Shuffled back key stage latest then ran home well (2nd-fastest last 200m) in what was on-pace dominated race and now meets winner King’s Palace 3kg better. Great value at $10 as I type…
  2. 1 – SERPENT – Really strong staying effort in NZ St Leger when out to 2500m at just start six. Come up fave, and short, but looks really hard to beat as not sure depth of these 3yo’s…???
  3. 3 – SHOREHAM – First go 2000m latest and went forward/gave all. Likely to stay and prefer with cover. Chance.
  4. 2 – KINGS PALACE – No knock on the win Caulfield as he covered ground and was gallant. Also should stick 2500m.
  5. 6 – BESSANO – Green but talented and beat older horses at 2100m before bit unlucky latest? Big track suits. Chance.
  6. 7 – BEL THOR – Much better last time racing handy and in the mix too.

Race 5 – Hcp – 1600m

 

  1. 5 – BONARIA – Good ride/win this track/trip two-back beating subsequent G2/WFA winner Spirit Song then was stopped when closing in said G2/WFA race with weights dead against her. Takes on males but can win.
  2. 9 – ERASET – Good return then went inside into slower ground Bendigo and that form (Jet Away/ Folding Gear) reads well. Good miler. Good 3rd-up. Likes it here.
  3. 11 – SWEET ELLA – Caught wide and kept closing Caulfield and ran well. Very good to Ninth Legion prior which reads well. Only mile run was a top win at Caulfield last prep.
  4. 12 – SHARALAM – Good win at the Oz debut rolling Zevada who is good (and then won). 1600m more suitable. Go well.
  5. 1 – CALLANISH – Pulled/Faded in Easter Cup. The close 4th in Blamey prior reads well for this, in fact, is 3 of 4 at 1600m. Expect better.
  6. 3 – BRITISH GENERAL – May get outright lead here. Keeps racing well… but finding one, two better… Pattern crucial.
  7. 2 – STAR OF GISELLE – Back here, to 1600m, has a case too.

Race 6 – Hcp – 2000m

 

  1. 5 – ZABISCO – Luckless in Easter Cup and had a bit to give! That was his first go 2000m. Wide no cover and excellent in Golden Mile prior. Flying! Bossy knows him. Loves big tracks like Flemington. Keen!
  2. 2 – BANCA MO – Good horse. Beat another good one in Dany The Fox Pakenham Cup latest and his 2000m run was a top 3L win MV.
  3. 8 – AULD BURNS – Top win 3rd-up then sound 2nd to Whisper Downs (and they thrashed 3rd). Whisper Downs then was terrific in that Easter Cup Zabisco was luckless in. Can win.
  4. 9 – GOLDONI – Gets to 2000m now which suits. More than sound 2nd-up but winner had match fitness on side. In this.
  5. 19 – XAVI – First try 2000m but looks ok if he can settle. Limited luck latest. Can he get a start…??

Race 7 – Hcp – 1000m

  1. 6 – LADY MELKSHAM – Terrific return win 955m/MV with big weight when squeezed through narrow gap and got up. Surpised they stay at the short-course trip but straight-track can off-set that. She has a touch of class and $5 looks fair enough.
  2. 7 – THAT’S THE ONE – Resumes. Good/unlucky 1.4L 4th MV to Sea Lord fresh last prep. 2nd to Mosheen fresh-up prior. He can win this!
  3. 9 – SHARNEE ROSE – Ran over Elite Elle fresh, that girl then looked like a star winning MV last week. Again, surprised they chose 1000m race but straight track, playing at home… She is quality too.
  4. 1 – GENERAL TRUCE – Always a must in these off-season sprints. Proven straight-track. Gate 2 not great bonus but hard to leave out isn’t he…
  5. 8 – EIGHT BILLS – Forever luckless. If they dodge Friday Night and run here he goes in too.
  6. 12 – DECIRCLES – We know is good enough, doubt all was well last time, freshened.

Race 8 – 0-89 – 1400m

  1. 6 – LAKE SENTENTIA – Did enough fresh given massive impost giving weight to males. Not exactly pitched in here 58.5kg either but fitter, big track suits and was G2 placed here before spell and beat home Silent Achiever.
  2. 14 – RUGGED CROSS – Beat a handy field at 1300m at the Oz debut and does boast 2nd-up win at home at 1400m. Big track here late in the day (so expect run ons will get their chance) and go well.
  3. 8 – CRUCIAL – Resumes. Hit line and was less than 3L off Serene Star fresh last prep in stakes race at Caulfield/1200m. If wound up for 1400m fresh she can beat these 0-89 rivals and has come up good odds.
  4. 7 – TWILIGHTING – Wasn’t far way fresh in strong off-season sprint and last win was at 1400m when beat the handy Shopaholic, then wasn’t far off Mosheen… Include at odds too.
  5. 16 – MECIR – Not sure how genuine but very talented and 1400m suits. Little luck latest.
  6. 17 – MIDSUMMER SUN – Goes in if they secure a run too…

 

RANDWICK

Race 1 – Kindergarten Stks – 2YO – 1100m

  1. 2 – SAFEGUARD – Resumes. Was dominant on debut beating Mount Zero (who was Ok behind Miracles Of Life) then spelled. Good/Close 3rd in recent trial when went every bit as well as Charlie Boy, who then ran well in a Golden Slipper.
  2. 6 – IL CAVALLO – Smashed the clock on debut and world class trainer then entered for Golden Slipper, but missed a run, looks very smart!
  3. 7 – EVERAGE – The value runner at $17 for mine. Terrific trial win 8/4. Beat Twilight Royale then ran 2nd to Overreach! Great formlines.
  4. 3 – DIAMOND OASIS – Stuck on OK in high-rating race Rosehill and Sidestep then was excellent in the Golden Slipper.
  5. 1 – ICONIC – Tough win in blanket finish Bendigo. Step to 1100m some query but that form is shaping OK despite said busy finish…

Race 2 – Carbine Club Stks – 1600m 3YO – 1600m

  1. 2 – TOYDINI – Has a rocket finish on him, looked to be just getting home OK last time then absolutely flew that last 150m. Step to 1600m ideal. He looks to have more upside than many here too.
  2. 1 – TATRA – Back to 1600m looks a plus, recent mile form is 3.3L 3rd to It’s A Dundeel/Proisir and Sandown Guineas win over Lunar Rise/Proverb (who are here). Will have head start on Toydini turning. Danger.
  3. 3 – LUNAR RISE – Went back 100m to 1300m 2nd-up, carried 58kg against older horses, and just no match (no surprise he was huge betting drifter – odd placement it was!). Out to mile now. Beat Tatra at this trip then was 2nd to him in Sandown Guineas.
  4. 5 – FLYING SNITZEL – Flew past Norzita (then won G1) running sizzling sectionals then worked home OK in Coolmore. Unproven 1600m is the query but chance.
  5. 4 – PROVERB – Was just OK last week. Wasn’t far off Tatra at this trip prior when hit line nicely so that puts him in the race, esp. with 1kg advantage.

Race 3 – Adrian Knox Stks – 3YOF – 2000m

  1. 7 – SAIL – Good finish in Keith Nolan at Kembla when .8L off Unimpeachable (the fave) and has 2kg on her, and 5kg on Royal Descent. Might be the value here at $9 mark. Will relish 2000m.
  2. 3 – UNIMPEACHABLE – Looking for 2000m herself, didn’t ping at Kembla but was strong late then just missed here with massive weight (beaten by handicapper). Serious winning hope.
  3. 6 – QUEENSTOWN – Impressed at WFM in smart time, jumps 1400-to-2000m but trained by Gai. Rolls forward. Measures up!
  4. 10 – DIVERTIRE – Beat Unimpeachable at Randwick when well ridden with 5kg swing. No knock though, was 1400-to-1800m… In the mix but suspect Unimpeachable can turn tables.
  5. 1 – ROYAL DESCENT – Tough here at the relative weights but swap the runs with winner Cameo at Kembla and she wins it. Maps well. Chance.

Race 4 – Chairmans Hcp – 2600m

  1. 11 – HATHRAS – Like the way he held his ground when beaten off in G1 at WFA last week, back to Hcp and 53kg and will eat 2600m on that run! Keen runs well.
  2. 2 – JULIENAS – Flying and doing so with big weights. Strong win in Manion Cup and other 2400m run was WFA 2nd to Kelinni who, of course, then ran 4th in a Melb cup.
  3. 7 – ALIYANA TILDE – Strong finish/win in Epona against her own sex. Steps to 2600m, her only other un this distance range is narrow 2nd to Streama in ATC Oaks. Can win.
  4. 4 – PERMIT – Sound 2nd to Julienas At Rosehill and has 1.5kg swing today so has a case too.
  5. 12 – HULA LUA – Didn’t ping last week but stuck on when beaten indicating she wants this trip… she was 6-weeks between runs there too… Hmmm.

Race 5 – Sires Stks – 2YO – 1400m

  1. 7 – OVERREACH – Strong win on-pace in Slipper with wet no issue, was braining them in fast times on dry prior. Don’t see 1400m pulling her up.
  2. 1 – CHARLIE BOY – Just had so much go wrong in Slipper, slow out/last/went widest yet had 2nd-fastest last 200m. At $15+ do suspect he is the value/danger.
  3. 8 – GUELPH – Sound finish in Slipper and looks a 1400m filly. Had break between runs into that too.
  4. 2 – CHAMPOLLION – Will make nice 3YO. Weaved through and won well last week in easier race (than Slipper that is) but has a stack of upside. May want 1600m now but some hope.
  5. 3 – WINDJAMMER – Desperate for 1400m now, also think drier ground than Slipper will help him. Some hope.

Race 6 – Doncaster Prelude – 1600m

  1. 9 – RASPBERRIES – No hope Vs tempo fresh. Good finale in Newcastle Newmarket 2nd-up. Last 3rd-up run was 1L 6th to Appearance in G1 Myer Classic. That was also her last 1600m run.
  2. 13 – MAHISARA – Sat up on speed in Newcastle Newmarket and battled well (was chopped out late) and easily beat Raspberries in Melb before the spell.
  3. 5 – ALMA’S FURY – Just even at the 1900m last time. Quickly back to 1600m, he was good 1.8L 6th at this trip prior, in G1 at WFA. Can win!
  4. 4 – HAVANA REY – Finished alongside Alma’s Fury in that G1/WFA at 1600m in good effort, won two before that, and one since. Just flying!
  5. 14 – SHENZHOU STEEDS – Just Ok fresh at Caulfield. Was sound 4th to Folding Gear (then ran well in Caul Cup) 2nd-up last prep. June 2012 the last win.
  6. 3 – SKYERUSH – Has a case too ridden colder atthis trip.

Race 7 – G1 ATC Derby – 3YO – 2400m

  1. 1 – IT’S A DUNDEEL – Slashing run fresh then blinkers on and won next two brilliantly at 1600/2000m. Don’t worry about VRC Derby miss, he ran super but just got lost that day (mile back). Star 3yo!
  2. 3 – PHILIPPI – Impressed last week easily beating a few who had been semi-competitive with It’s A Dundeel. Should relish trip.
  3. 9 – HIGH SHOT – Lost momentum and ended up mile back turning then picked-up and was ok through the line behind Philippi last week. Yes 2400m. Tipping he gets much, much closer the stablemate here given even luck.
  4. 5 – HIPPOPUS – Sound but no match Philippi last week and trip looks no issue. each-way hope.
  5. 2- HVASSTAN – Beat Philippi then too bad to be true Rosehill latest. Next best.

Race 8 – Sapphire Stks – Mares – 1200m

  1. 4 – DYSTOPIA – Brilliant trial before good 4th in Galaxy run in near record time and back to own sex, out to 1200m with winnble weight. Goes close.
  2. 16 – SHAMAL WIND – Just about Run Of The Day in Adelaide then burst through and looked winner last time, then Arinosa swooped. Has weight advantage and real upside. Gate 2. Go well.
  3. 5 – ARINOSA – Just at a new level this prep. Big finale/win over Shamal Wind last time… Only tiny, tiny query, is she looking for 1400m now? Goes in everything.
  4. 3 – ALTAR – Led and had little peace fresh, she ran well off nice trial form and 2nd-up last prep held off all-bar Unpretentious who many were tipping to run well in Galaxy until scratched at gates…Overs??
  5. 9 – DETOURS – Resumes. Very good trial. Did same thing before last prep then sat 4-wide and Caulfield and brained a handy field.

Race 9 – TJ Smith Stks – WFA – 1200m

  1. 9 – BLACK CAVIAR – Brilliant return win in record time then nice barrier trial at MV. As good as ever according to trainer…
  2. 2 – BEL SPRINTER – Blew start, circled them and went straight past some exceptional horses in Galaxy and was within .06 of the track record. That’s the Bel Sprinter we knew!!!
  3. 4 – DECISION TIME – Two good runs off 76-week break, have to assume there is improvement into this 3rd-up run, gets 2.5kg on Bel Sprinter too.
  4. 7 – HOWMUCHDOYOULOVEME – Good return but had gut-buster on fast pace then flat one 2nd-up when never in right spot. Expecting better!
  5. 3 – RAIN AFFAIR – Stuck OK to Pierro/ More Joyous fresh and they both won, or should have won, G1’s last week…

 

Good luck !

Related Tag: Melbourne Horse Racing Tips

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